The Road from 2014 is Over: A New Road Map is needed for Scotland and Independence
Sunday National, April 27 2025
Gerry Hassan
Scottish politics has had some climatic moments recently – the UK Supreme Court decision on women’s and trans rights; the SNP and Labour trying to deal with the challenge of Reform; and the brief excitement of an opinion poll with a sensational degree of independence support.
Beyond this Scottish politics is characterised by drift and by being in the doldrums with a lack of dynamism, direction and purpose – and a great big void at the heart where there should be energy and engagement.
Take the discussions about attitudes towards Reform, for example. John Swinney’s summit was predictably boycotted by the Tories, Farage prefers the SNP in office to Labour and everyone else is trying to blame each other for Reform’s increasing popularity; inadvertently making Farage’s case. The Scottish political establishment uniting against Farage though emphasises his importance and allows him to portray himself as the outsider and claim anti-establishment credentials.
One huge issue that needs to be faced in Scottish, as in UK, politics is where is the substance. Where are the politicians, leaders and ideas that can face up to, and deal with, the huge challenges we face as a society and planet? Mainstream politics in Scotland and the UK is defined by miniaturised, managerial politicians with small attention-spans seeking ideas mostly irrelevant to the big issues. The longer this chasm continues the more it plays into right-wing populism the world over. Scotland is no exception.
Independence has a host of positives. 2014 brought it into the mainstream and made it the defining issue of our politics. The UK state is broken beyond repair, and the demographic time bomb looks bad for the union. Mark McGeoghegan asked this week: “Is indy inevitable?” answering that “the signs are looking good for Yessers” due to the degree of support in the under 50s. But no such seismic change is ever “inevitable”. And to not squander these positives, independence needs to face some uncomfortable truths about how it does politics and how it has avoided difficult questions since 2014.
In this climate some independence supporters still believe and hold on to the allure that everything will work out; that one positive independence poll will provide the breakthrough moment and take the cause over the winning line. This is the backdrop of last week’s headline grabbing poll which gave independence 56% support and a 12% lead with don’t knows removed. This was a poll which not only looked, as Ballot Box Scotland noted “an outlier”, but came out of the blue and does not on its own change anything.
Part of independence opinion is still stuck on a seamless road from 2014 – a linear path of progress from that date with destiny eleven years ago, buying into independence as an abstract and principle shorn of any detail. This is an independence which conveniently chooses to ignore the realities and problems of the past decade plus.
This approach harms not just independence, but wider politics, government and public debate. Such sentiment, seeing the glistening spectre of “Camelot on the hill” seemingly tantalisingly near, is happy to go along with the present situation without asking too many questions. The doldrums, drift and “steady as she goes” leadership of John Swinney sits side-by-side with the deep dysfunctionalism of the SNP and the cumulative effect of Sturgeon’s leadership which cost the SNP, independence and Scotland dear and of which we are still counting the cost.
A Reality Check about the 2026 Election
The time is long overdue for some difficult truths. Only then can Scottish politics refresh, grow and connect – and break out of its current state and closed conversations and predictable positions defining the present. A stock-take of the likely landscape of the 2026 elections is part of this.
First, the 2026 election will not be for most voters about independence. The reality of recent polls is that independence is way down the list of importance for most voters. It is ranked joint eighth – on 14% – according to YouGov and ranked third priority with SNP voters on 32%, behind health and the economy.
Second, whatever the detailed result there will be little prospect of a clear independence mandate in 2026. Third, none of this can be short circuited by trying to game the electoral system and the regional list vote based on the SNP’s regional vote not winning further representation because of its success in FPTP. Any attempt to do this would be counter-productive and carry no political weight. It is in short political fantasy which prevents independence thinking about the hard work needed.
Fourth, 2026’s election dynamic is already clear. It will be about two unpopular governments – SNP and Labour – and one other unpopular party with lots of baggage – the Tories. This context will aid Reform’s appeal, and to a lesser extent the Greens.
Fifth, thinking that the next Scottish election will be about independence is dangerous wish-fulfilment. But the motivations of others who are pro-independence are more questionable. For some senior figures in the SNP this is at best the art of diversion and at worst deception; driven by the desire to deflect attention from the SNP’s patchy record in office after what will then be 19 years and whether they have the right to try to secure a historic fifth term. Using independence as a cover minimises the SNP being held to account and prevents too many independence supporters asking difficult questions.
Independence needs to stop living in the past world of 2014
Independence must stop living in a world defined by 2014 and the idea of a straightforward road of progress. It should abandon the political mindset of unquestioning faith in party leadership and a view that the SNP’s cautious centrist control politics can somehow deliver the goods when they are all part of a problem politics and a politics of control.
There needs to be time called on the idea that independence is all that matters when the everyday state of country and lived experience of Scots is what matters to most voters. There should be a recognition that not only is independence not imminent but there is an element of illusion in its appeal and state, without any conspicuous (and in many cases deliberate lack of) work done to reframe and revitalise independence post-2014.
The belief in an independence just round the corner is the kind of escapist delusion that part of independence falls victim to. At its most extreme it can be seen in the complete fantasy that taking Scotland’s case to the UN will somehow see it recognise Scotland’s right to self-determination and ride to our rescue. There is zero precedent for this approach in an advanced capitalist democracy; it also misunderstands the UN, Scotland, the UK and the global system of nation-states.
The above stances demonstrate an inability to deal with inconvenient truths and realities about Scotland – such as the need to develop a political pitch which speaks to and can win a majority of voters. At their worst such delusions reinforce the vice-like grip of conservative unimaginative politics that are unwilling to address the big issues in Scotland.
Fantasy politics sit side-by-side with giving a free pass to a mundane politics that lets people down every day because of a belief that if independence is achieved all the compromises and shortcomings of the present are worthwhile. Such a politics does not live in the here and now of present-day Scotland and is seriously detached from reality.
This plays into a wider interpretation of independence by its opponents. Pro-union politicians often caricature independence supporters as being “one trick ponies” who are only motivated by their cause to the exclusion of everything else from economic facts, the record of the SNP in office, international politics, and more.
If some independence supporters believe every electoral contest is primarily about independence, they are playing into and reinforcing that unionist caricature of independence. Playing into your opponents’ perceptions and how they frame a debate is never good politics, and independence reduced to an essentialist Scottish nationalist take focused on emotion and sentimentality is not conducive to what independence needs to be.
A difficult truism for independence supporters to accept is that all politics needs a sense of time, timescales and importance of temporal change – a point explored in Jonathan’s White’s recent In the Long Run: The Future as a Political Idea. Big political change isn’t always about just repeating the same message irrespective of the environment and context. Independence must calibrate a distinct set of messages, understand timescales and adapt with the times. This is what it did to be so successful in 2014 – and what it must do again.
The geopolitics of the world has consequences. In 2014 independence was launched as a project in what people thought was a relative period of benign calm and prosperity. This was not completely the situation then with the Russian military intervention in the east of Ukraine and illegal Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Fast forward to 2025 and the world is a lot darker and more volatile – wherever one looks from Putin to Trump, Israel, Gaza and the Middle East and the more aggressive nationalism of Xi’s China. This wider environment is not conducive to imagining or launching any independent Scotland and these wider constraints need to be recognised not ignored.
The limits of the SNP and absence of an independence movement worthy of the name
Independence has avoided hard lifting since 2014 – the troika of understanding why it lost, the need for a new offer confronting the difficult choices economically and in the early years, while painting a picture of the direction of the country and our collective future. Such an approach would in its three-parts have a sense of timescale: understanding the past to move forward, the present and near-future and the more distant future. Without this independence is a kind of mirage.
One senior SNP figure candidly said: “We have not done all the substantive work since 2014 because we did not want to confront our supporters with problematic truths and choices.” They went on: “It was far easier for the leadership to evade this and just talk about the cause and principle without beginning the foundational work of knowing why we lost in 2014.” An SNP MSP commented: “Independence since 2014 has been a house built on a lack of proper work and foundations because we never looked at why we fell short in the referendum.”
Some of the blame for this sits with the SNP leadership who told people what they wanted to hear. But there is a wider responsibility – of all independence currents and supporters. Leadership is an interactive process based not just on leaders but on followers and their expectations. Hence as one SNP ex-staffer puts it: “There was a failure of leadership under Nicola Sturgeon wasting all her political capital. But there was also a deep failure of the party and movement who wanted to believe in something that ultimately wasn’t there. And we are living with that aftermath now.”
Too much of independence since 2014 has been as one observer puts it “reaching for the Kool-Aid and getting high on our own hype” to the cost of political judgement. Since 2014 there has been no real independence movement. There is a SNP which appropriates the rhetoric of a movement but has done nothing to aid and encourage one, instead preferring top-down party control. If anyone thinks that sounds harsh that is how many SNP ministers have talked privately for a decade.
At the same time a group of lone political entrepreneurs and political initiatives (Nordic Horizons, Believe in Scotland, Common Weal to name a few) have done worthy work but are fragile entities which cannot replace the absence of a real infrastructure that would constitute an independence movement. Movement building has been seen for a decade as a threat by the SNP to its primary position, while it is difficult for other forces to scale up and build permanent institutions.
What would a movement politics look like that is different from today? Here is an American authority on the subject: “A politics of movement entails diffusing and letting power be held by a wide variety of voices and agencies. It involves thinking long-term. It necessitates campaigning groups, support organisations, research and lobbying groups all located in a culture advancing a common cause.” This person is talking about the US civil rights movement, but it is equally applicable to Scottish independence.
Seven Thoughts for a Future Independence
It is not all doom and gloom. It is rather that in an age of polycrisis no one should still cling to old certainties and folktales – including those told in 2014 and subsequently. As a contribution to the debate here are a set of observations on doing things differently.
First, surprise matters in politics. Independence needs to stop repeating the same failed messages as if that will suddenly lead to a breakthrough. The 2011 election was a surprise SNP victory, including for the SNP, which allowed independence to seize the initiative and wrong-footing opponents. Never underestimate how changing your language and how you do politics and your priorities can (if it is unexpected) frame a debate and put opponents on the backfoot. How can the forces of independence articulate a politics of surprise? Not being trapped by 2014 would be a good start.
Second, we live in an attention economy. But attention needs to be won, made, and remade. That means substance, messaging and politics which makes people sit up and pay attention and that requires changing what you say and not carrying on with the same theme and tone – such as feeling cheated about 2014.
Third, there is a crisis of participation. It has never been easier to mobilise a virtual constituency but it is harder to make a sustainable community. Says one US community activist: “It has never been simpler and more straightforward to get a certain critical mass of people and get them angry and mobilised. The challenge is what do you do to maintain that commitment and win?” Anger and rejection of the status quo is never enough as that initial emotional surge dissipates; movement-building requires a positive outline of a destination and some detail of it.
Fourth, all movements have to overcome resistance and pushback. There has never been a successful moment for change anywhere that has seen people say “we want change” and for it to then happen smoothly and easily. All movements encounter resistance. “The marker of an effective movement is how they react to resistance and pushback. That is a moment of learning and maturity” notes a US academic on the civil rights movement. Independence hasn’t learned this basic fact – instead dwelling on past successes and failures which is not aiding its mindset to evolve or adapt.
Fifth, taking responsibility. Not everything that is wrong in Scotland is the fault of the usual list of culprits – the British state, Westminster, Tories, Labour and the UK political establishment. Some is due to home-grown reasons and institutions which need facing up to – our scandalous drug deaths, the scar of health inequalities, the scale of child poverty (which is lower than in the rest of the UK), the atrophying of local government, health, education, the saga of the ferries, and more. Scotland, the Scottish Government, Parliament and public bodies have too often fallen short; we should not hide from that or offer evasive excuses. The biggest obstacle in change is not the British state, but ultimately ourselves.
Sixth, the need for reaching out, healing and thinking beyond binary divisions. Scottish society needs a public discourse which encourages more healing, respect and empathy. Easier said than done. We are living in a highly stressed age – the after-effects of Tory austerity, the COVID pandemic, a hard Brexit that no one voted for, and recently, the harsh toxic debate on women’s and trans rights which has left people on both sides feeling ignored and threatened.
The “how” question in this is critical. How do we talk and interact in public life, find common language, listen to others that we do not agree with, and as a result feel seen and understood? How can we on issues like trans rights and independence think beyond the binary, and not see the world in either/or terms and not “other” opponents?
For all the talk of Scotland’s supposed inclusive politics on too many issues the body politic has failed. It obviously failed spectacularly on trans rights where the Scottish Government needs to do some serious soul searching. Beyond this the entire devolution project has not addressed the Scotland to whom it speaks, and listens instead to polite middle class, professional civil society who know how to work the system. Those without power, status and influence are left out in the cold. This critique of devolution holds for the conventional version of independence on offer from the SNP which has shown in its years in office no real insight into this dissatisfactory state of affairs.
Finally, the above is about challenging the prevailing conservatism in Scottish public life which the SNP is part of. The Janus-like face of our politics is too often not recognised: invoking the radical heritage of Red Clydeside, Highland crofters and land reform campaigners, while a dour machine politics of power and administration grinds on.
It is not an accident that Labour and SNP in their peak years have exhibited some of the same qualities to navigate this, performing centrist control politics while trying to emphasis their radical credentials on things they don’t control. For Labour it was anti-apartheid and Palestinian solidarity; with the SNP, nuclear weapons and Israel’s brutality in Gaza. All this allows them to avoid difficult questions about how they have run Scotland.
Independence needs to become several things at once – an independent state of mind not tied to one party that is always offering excuses for their failings; a self-governing project centred on shifting power in Scotland and making sure independence is not just about more powers for politicians at Holyrood, and about how Scotland is seen in the wider world.
These different dimensions – psychological, about power, and about being visible and seen – require cultural and political shifts. The journey from 2014 was always going to be long and winding, and not a straight and obvious path. Now is the time to choose a new direction. This will come after the 2026 election but genuine debate and discussion should start now.
