After Hamilton, Scottish Politics and the Cause of Independence
Bella Caledonia, 6 June 2025
Gerry Hassan
Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehall has proven to be a consequential Scottish by-election. Not of the mythical levels of Hamilton 67 or Govan 73, but contests like that are few and far between. Yet in a world where by-election aren’t what they used to be, it has thrown significant light on Scottish politics and the major protagonists.
Labour gained a seat from the SNP, against the expectations of the commentators and prevailing wisdom which says much about both. The SNP and Tories suffered major reverses – a shock for the former which really should not have been a shock. Reform proved they can have an impact and win votes, achieving the highest ever parliamentary level of support in Scotland for a Farage party (26.1%). What does all this mean? How should the parties respond? And what does it mean for the future of Scotland – and for independence?
Politics is about expectations; because the SNP and media class talked themselves into believing the Nationalists would win the result came as a shock. Yet in actual fact the Labour, SNP and Tory falls were all on trend and in line with the polls (-2.0%; -16.8%; -11.5% respectively). All three parties are falling back compared to where they were previously and are struggling to adapt in Scotland – as Labour and Tories are across the UK.
The SNP spectacularly misplayed the by-election and the national mood. John Swinney’s anti-Reform summit seemed at the time, and was proven in hindsight, to be counterproductive and illustrative of Scottish liberal establishment attitudes. More specifically John Swinney’s strategy of talking up Reform, claiming that only voting SNP could stop them, backfired. Compound this with, post-election, Jamie Hepburn making the unfounded claim that the SNP had never stated that the contest was a “two-horse race” and the party’s confusions are self-evident.
Labour fought a campaign with local nous, prepared to take hard choices in its best interests – such as shielding its eventually victorious candidate Davy Russell from TV and debates. Anas Sarwar has had a reprieve but is not out of the woods yet. He is Scottish Labour’s tenth leader since the onset of devolution and four years into his stint has yet to work out anything resembling a strategy and will face a tough contest in the 2026 election. He and Labour have gained time from this unexpected victory and can gain some succour from SNP visible problems, but little else.
If the SNP and Labour have problems, then the Tories’ existential crisis threatens their very existence. This is nothing unique to Scotland but as in many things the decay and decline is more advanced here, and the party has less resources to draw upon to do anything. In a quarter century of devolution the Scottish Tories have yet to strike a convincing stance and critique of the Parliament and its goings on. And now they find the uncontested ground on the right where they have planted their flag and behaved unconvincingly is under threat from a new force – Farage and Reform UK who threaten to sweep them away.
Reform’s vote challenges Scottish complacency and exceptionalism. But while post-election Reform are winning media plaudits their lack of their professionalism is evident. This was an election that Reform could have won and it is highly likely that their nasty, vicious, racist attack on Anas Sarwar (which they doubled down on and refused to withdraw) cost them votes and potential victory. It clearly did not help while the resignation of UK chair, Zia Yusuf, indicates that the party is still going through birth pains and divisions in how it grows and evolves and questions whether Farage has the attention span for the long haul.
Many in Scotland are surprised at the size of Reform’s vote but this has been a long time coming. The trend in local by-elections has been clear for the past year and more. The party won 26% in Clydebank Waterfront one month ago and previously secured just below 26% in Fraserburgh in Aberdeenshire. 38% of Scottish voters backed Leave in 2016 and as John Curtice pointed out on the BBC election night special Reform are winning approximately 50% of this group in England and 40% in Scotland. They are picking up one-fifth to one-quarter of the 2021 Tory vote and one-sixth of Labour’s 2021 vote.
For too long, many Scottish voices have dismissed the appeal of Farage north of the border. They have branded him exclusively an English nationalist which ignores the consistent appeal of all Farage’s serial parties – and of Brexit in Wales. And it has tended to caricature Farage which is not a uniquely Scottish response. Michael Crick, author of a serious biography on Farage, One Party After Another, takes the view that “illiberal liberals who tut-tut at the mention of Farage’s name” have merely added fuel to his appeal by their condescension and dismissal.
The future of Scottish politics after Hamilton
Where then does Hamilton leave Scottish politics, its future course and the cause of independence? Some unintended consequences emerge from Thursday. For starters Reform will come under more scrutiny from the Scottish media. A glimpse was seen after Thursday’s count with deputy leader Richard Tice facing cross-examination in light of Yusaf’s resignation; he was clearly on the backfoot and for a party which has played and been aided by the media for years he clearly found it uncomfortable. Add to this that Reform have to put together a serious Scottish operation for next year, select candidates and develop a few keynote policies – whilst there will be plenty of opportunities for slip-ups.
The SNP’s confusion after the result underlined an entire cohort of SNP politicians, advisers and payroll vote who have never really experienced tough times and now must adjust to the wind slowly leaving the party’s sails. Some seem like fish out of water in such circumstances. Besides this, the generational churn at next year’s election, a patchy record in office, tiredness and lack of direction make it a heady, troublesome mix.
This comes to a head in terms of the future direction that the SNP should take towards 2026 and after. John Swinney has steadied the ship after the turmoil of Sturgeon’s resignation, the Yousaf Premiership and shadow of Branchform. One vocal perspective says that Swinney and the SNP must put independence front and centre of everything to reignite the passion. Another says that the country needs policies and actions which deal with the problems people face and which in key places, such as land reform, might even be bold and eye-catching.
The dilemma for the SNP is that it confronts this strategic choice after eighteen years in office. It is no longer fully in control of events. If it embraced the independence road it would have to do work it has not undertaken post-2014 on why Yes lost and update some of the core offer. It would also have to deal with independence being well down the list of voter priorities. And if it concentrates on policy it must realistically, like any long-time incumbent, address mistakes and shortcomings in its own record and draw up convincing policies which speak to voters. In the real world, the SNP under Swinney will in all likelihood fudge this choice and go quiet on independence, while pretending they are not, and offer a few select policies to cause maximum embarrassment to Labour in Scotland about what Starmer is doing in Westminster. None of this is a strategy for renewal but for vote retention and defensiveness.
The Labour Party have been given a breathing space by this victory but privately there will be no pretence they are advancing. After eighteen years of opposition Labour still have not adapted to how to combat the SNP, and Anas Sarwar has not shown in four years that he has any capacity to find such a strategy. Sarwar rode the brief Starmer honeymoon (if it can even be called that) when UK Labour was in opposition and public opinion north and south of the border was desperate to get rid of the Tories. But he did nothing to reset Scottish Labour’s appeal – such as declare independence from the British party – and now it is in all probability too late for him.
The Tories have even less room for manoeuvre in Scotland and it may well be that their days as a nationwide force are coming to an end. Scottish Tory leaders come and go now with little traction in the way Scottish Labour leaders used to and none of it makes any difference. There is a centre-right constituency yearning to be championed in Scotland and even allowing for the uncomfortable truth that part of this opinion has historically been in the SNP and Scottish Labour, the rise of Reform offers a very different, disruptive and unapologetic politics of the right.
The Lib Dems will remain at the margins in Scottish political life but able to tenaciously hold on to a few local strongholds thanks to organisation and tradition. The Scottish Greens seem to have survived their experience of government with the SNP with an impressive lack of public opprobrium. Yet they face deeper challenges about how they do politics beyond their own echo chamber, the language and attitudes they exhibit, and a strand of self-righteousness and intolerance which runs through too many in the party, and which drove out such talents as Andy Wightman.
Alba’s continued irrelevance in the real world deepens. A party which could not find a rationale with Alex Salmond as leader is not going to have a revival under Kenny MacAskill. It has provided one useful function in acting as a holding pen for some of the more intemperate voices of Scottish independence relegating them to irrelevance. Despite all the party’s protestations it will be a miracle if the party wins a single seat in next year’s election or even comes near. Much more likely is that post-2026 it begins the process of winding up operations which begs the question: where will its small group of activists and members go?
Where then does this lead post-2026? A lot of hot air has been expended on the possibility of a SNP-Labour “grand coalition” if Reform surge next year. The likes of Kenny Farquharson have made this case, as has Dani Garavelli in more qualified tones. But this is the sort of accommodation that part of polite Scotland want; putting aside the major divides of our politics and uniting against the threat of the supposed vandals. It just is not going to happen this side of independence.
Another fantasy parliamentary politics of some is that next year’s elections produce a diminished SNP and inflated pro-union majority with the latter coming together despite its divisions. In this situation one scenario floated is that Anas Sarwar becomes First Minister with the permission of Farage’s newly empowered Reform contingent. Again this will not happen and would not be in the interests of Labour or Reform.
The future of independence
What then of Scottish independence? Where is it in a world where one poll put it 54:46 ahead last weekend while SNP support drifts downwards? This environment is one where pro-independence opinion suffers from the lack of debate and pluralism in its ranks and that of the SNP since 2014. Too many parts of independence have had to endure the various fables, myths and deceptions which successive SNP leaderships have employed since 2014 and hence had their own judgement corroded or incorporated.
Several facts need to be squared here. First, independence is the major long-term dividing line of Scottish politics. But that does not mean it operates as the defining issue in each and every election. Like every single issue it is susceptible to ebbs and flows. Second, next year’s election will not be an independence election unless some major, transformative change happens to Scottish public opinion. Voters have in recent surveys put it eighth in priorities; it is only third in the priority list of SNP voters.
Third, all the above operates in the fantasy land that there is somehow somewhere an independence offer sitting secretly ready to be realised. There is not. Independence is in no state to launch itself as a major election theme next year. Fourth, thinking that independence can just spring magically from a conjurer’s hat minimises the real work and heavy lifting that needs to be done – which has conspicuously been missing since 2014. Without this, all talk of an independence election and exiting the UK as soon as possible is a pipedream which aids the current status quo, the conservative hold over Scottish politics and the stasis prevalent across all the mainstream parties.
There are no quick fixes to the above. There are no easy escape routes involving gaming the Scottish Parliament electoral system to produce a super-independence majority on a much smaller share of the vote. Similarly, the idea that the UN will ride to the rescue of Scotland and advance independence – something which has not happened anywhere in the world in a stable, political democracy, is just not reality. Worse such fantasies allow too many to collude with the unsatisfactory state of Scottish politics.
The road to change in Scotland is harder and more straightforward. It entails talking about the obvious shortcomings and failings of devolution and of the SNP in office and addressing it. The scandalous state of health and education, the perilous state of local government, Scotland’s shocking record of drug deaths are but a few.
More than this it requires a different kind of politics not about politicians, institutions and vague abstracts. But rather about how we advance and nurture a different kind of society which addresses powerlessness, voicelessness and learned helplessness which scar so many Scottish communities – which devolution was meant to tackle and has failed to do so under Labour and the SNP.
Our politics must deal with the big questions of who we are, how we relate to one another – and support and look after one another. Doing something this fundamental would make the politics of self-government and self-determination real and human, and about changing lives for the better. No one ever said change was easy, but at least we should try and break out of the conservative grip and imagination which has defined Scottish politics for too long – independence included.
